EU ELECTIONS! President-elect Donald Trump is suddenly a real possibility

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Hillary Clinton’s campaign had every motive to begin Election Day feeling assured. Since Donald Trump declared for president Clinton had led consistently in the surveys,. Despite a bumpy last week of the campaign, forecasters were debating only whether her victory was all but ensured or not unlikely.

Things seem a lot different 12 hours afterwards.

Donald Trump is having a much better election night than anyone anticipated going into Tuesday.

And his powerful performance among rural and white voters, including in places that have traditionally voted Democratic, suggests that Clinton’s rock solid “firewall” — Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — might not hold after all.

Trump is winning in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina or won.

Trump had three states he needed to win to keep a path to victory open: Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. He’s either won or is on course to win in all them.

None of these states were must-wins for Clinton, who has an avenue to the presidency and 270 electoral votes . But they were states where as a way to keep his path to the presidency open Trump had to be successful.

Going into Election Day they generally showed Clinton top, although the surveys in all three states have been tight. So Trump’s successes, while not completely outside the realm of chance, are surprising. More than surprising: stunning. Anchors repeatedly have said they’re shocked that they’re even discussing the probability of a Trump presidency seriously, as CNN has assessed in on races.

Is being held by Clinton’s firewall — so far

The good thing for the Clinton campaign, if there exists great news, is that the states Clinton needed to win she’s won, so far.

Important networks have called Colorado and Virginia, two states in the six-state “firewall” that would supply the 270 votes she needs for Clinton, for the presidency. The other four states — Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan — are too close to call and are still counting votes.

Those states have traditionally voted for Democrats. But they also have fewer nonwhite voters, a group that has turned out ardently as a share of the people than Florida or North Carolina, for Clinton. Trump’s powerful performance so far has relied on his ability. The question is whether Clinton is in for a shocking defeat, or whether conventional partisanship will win out.